DEARBORN -- Predicting the future in an ever-changing world isn’t ever easy. But for Ford, it’s a vital aspect of planning.  As the Global Consumer Trends and Futuring Manager for Ford Motor Company, Sheryl Connelly is responsible for identifying and tracking trends that will shape consumers' value, attitudes and beliefs in the future.  In her monthly column on @Ford, Connelly shares unique insight into trends outside the automotive industry with specific focus on social, technology, economic, environment and political arenas.

Meet the Millennials. They are confident, under 30 and ready to take on the world – but apparently not the roads.

Millennials – also known as Gen Y and Echo Boomers – drive less than any generation that came before them. According to the U.S. Department of Transportation, the number of drivers between the ages of 16 and 19 has declined 15 to 25 percent over the last 30 years. The theories behind this shift are many, but here are some of the most intriguing explanations:

• Simple economics
In the wake of the global recession, parents and teens alike are hard pressed to pay the costs associated with driver education and insurance. Driver’s Ed. was once offered as a free curriculum through public high schools. Now it can cost up to $800. And the cost to insure a teen driver can be prohibitive. One of Ford’s youngest summer intern reported that when his parents added him to their insurance policy, their premium went up $2,500 annually.

• More purchases competing for teens’ savings
Keeping up with the rapid pace of technological innovation can be very expensive. New and improved cell phones, MP3 players and laptops hit the market every day, instantly rendering existing devices obsolete within years – if not months – after their original purchase.

• Economics notwithstanding, the car is no longer the symbol of freedom and independence
Modern technology has assumed that role. Hand-held digital devices literally transcend time and space. Cell phones, text messaging and Facebook posts can bring teens together virtually even when they are physically apart.

• Alternatives to driving
Being overscheduled is a given for Millennials. Many find that they just don’t have the time and/or the desire to learn to drive. But that doesn’t necessarily hinder their ability to get around. Depending on where you live in the U.S., there may be a host of public transportation options. And even in areas where public transportation isn’t plentiful, there’s still mom and dad. For some parents, shuttling their kids around is the only “alone” time they get with their kids. In these instances, chauffeuring is less about transportation and more about quality bonding time.

• Distracted driving laws
Millennials are history’s first “always connected” generation. So it comes as no surprise that one study found that Millennials would rather lose their wallet than their cell phone. Following that line of logic, if given the choice of driving or staying connected, many will opt out of the automobile and onto the subway, train or bus. Thank goodness for SYNC!
In a recent article in Ad Age, Paul Taylor, the chief economist with the National Automobile Dealers Association, maintained that the economy is at the heart of the decline in driving. As such, he says, “Driving is more likely delayed than denied.”  He argues that life stage changes, such as family formation, will eventually necessitate driving. This is indeed a compelling argument, but it doesn’t necessarily translate into more vehicle sales.

What if driving is delayed and vehicle ownership is denied?  Will Millennials who make it to 25 or 30 years of age relying solely on public transportation, ride sharing or car sharing models like Zipcar consider a car a must-have? 

It is at least worth some thought.